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<スマートフォン>アンドロイドOSは2012年にピークを迎え後はゆっくり落ちる!!


 ギガオムとIDCの記事ですがIDCはアンドロイドOSは2012年がピークで次第にシェアが落ちると言う仰天予測を出しています。更にびっくりなのはWindows Phone は2016年までに iOS を抜くという予測です。ノキアがパートナーのお蔭で 2016,までには19% shareをとり二位にあがるそうです。何故なら新興国でノキアはまだ強いからだと予測しています。それに対してギガオムはおかしいと疑問を呈しています。


Smartphone Operating Systems
“Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape,” added Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team. “Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone/Windows Mobile). What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems – as well as others – will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements.”
IDC projects Android will remain the most shipped smartphone operating system over the course of the five-year forecast though its share will peak this year. Increasingly, its share and growth will be driven by Samsung sales. This Android stratification will happen even as more devices powered by Google’s mobile OS from a wide variety of phone makers enter the market.
iOS will continue its impressive run thanks to strong iPhone 4S momentum in North America, Western Europe, and Asia/Pacific, specifically China, this year. Growth will moderate over the five-year forecast given the large installed base Apple has accumulated, which means more of its addressable market will be on replacement cycles. Emerging market growth is of utmost importance if iOS is to gain share. Although a small market share decline is expected, IDC expects significant overall shipment volume growth to continue through 2016.
Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will gain share despite a slow start. Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will be aided by Nokia’s strength in key emerging markets. IDC expects it to be the number 2 OS with more than 19% share in 2016, assuming Nokia’s foothold in emerging markets is maintained.

 ★★ Android Expected to Reach Its Peak This Year as Mobile Phone Shipments Slow, According to IDC
  ★★ IDC pegs Windows Phone to pass iOS by 2016. (Really!)

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